If the stakes weren’t so high, this would almost be comical. It’s safe to say the days of cowboy diplomacy are over and the President can kiss the days of his riding roughshod over Congress goodbye.

This week, the House and the Senate approved supplemental bills for the war that call for milestones and timelines for our ending our involvement in Iraq. The polls show a clear majority of Americans backing this idea. The Republican backers tried trotting out the same old talking points (”our leaving Iraq would plunge it into chaos” and “this move emboldens our enemies” are usually in the top two) but, this isn’t working either. Now, the President is pulling his one last desperate act of bravado — he is telling Congress not to “test his will.”

In other words, he is saying that if these bills, in their current form, hit his desk, he will veto them. However, he said that last week and Congress still voted to move ahead on these bills. So, I think what Congress is say is “go ahead, if you dare.”

So, why do I think the President’s spooked? I’ll lay it out:

1. The talking points aren’t working any more. Americans now realize that we have been in Iraq longer than we were in WWII and we don’t have a viable plan for winning or a real strategy for leaving. We know that the military is strained and people are being sent back to Iraq for the third or fourth time. They also see their National Guard and its resource being deployed to Iraq (remember Hurricane Katrina). So, we, as Americans, realize that he is just offering empty rhetoric.
2. This war is expensive. Americans were told that this war would cost us nearly nothing, financially. Experts are saying that this war and its related costs (including adequate veterans’ care) could end up costing some $2 trillion. You have people in this country losing homes and healthcare, paying $3/gallon for gas and wondering if they will be able to send their kids to college. You don’t think we’re starting to scrutinize where our country’s money is going?
3. He would be vetoing the money for the war. Bush can’t say he needs money and flatly turn down $100 billion. In essence, he would then be the one ending the war. Right now, he has the funds to hold out until July, at the latest but, he’d have to wrap things up by the end of summer if he turns down the money.

What Bush is too scared to admit is that Americans put in a new Congress to end the Iraq War, period. Each day he thwarts efforts to do so, his party continues to lose credibility with Americans. Of course, he has his base of roughly 30-33% of voters but, an overwhelming majority of independent (swing) voters, are squarely with the Democrats on this issue. So, by vetoing an ending to this war, he is on his way to guaranteeing a Republican defeat for 2008.

It’s sad that this has turned into a contest to see who’ll blink first but, this is where we’re at today. By next week, I believe we’ll see which way this thing is going to play out.

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